Crude Oil (WTI)

Neutral

Archived analysis from Sep 30, 2026, 4:10 AM

Key insight

$89–$90 is the fulcrum: SPR release + Saudi export recovery capped Monday's $96.54 spike; diplomacy with Iran determines next $10 move up or down.

Stabilises at $89 — Saudi East-West pipeline restored to 3.5 mbpd and 40 mb SPR release cap upside; Strait of Hormuz closure risk caps downside.

Main risk

US-Iran Diplomatic Breakdown

Trump rejected Iran's June peace plan Sep 28; renewed Hormuz closure threat could spike WTI back above $96 fast.

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