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Crude Oil (WTI)

Neutral

81.65 USD ▲ +0.06%

Analysis from Aug 14, 2026, 8:24 PM

81.61 stalls between 200-day MA near 79.50 and 2026 swing high at 84.10 — direction hinges on OPEC supply signals.

81.61 holds mid-range — no catalyst to break 84.00 resistance or crack 79.00 support yet.

Main Risk

OPEC+ surprise output increase

Unscheduled OPEC+ supply hike would push WTI below 79.50 200-day MA rapidly.

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Hard Stop: 76.80 — Break of Jun 2026 swing low at 76.80 invalidates bullish structure entirely.

Support 2: 77.80 — Jun 2026 swing low

Support 1: 79.50 — 200-day MA

Resistance 1: 84.10 — 2026 swing high

Resistance 2: 87.00 — Round number / Jan 2026 high

Bull Target 1: 84.10 — 2026 swing high

Bull Target 2: 87.00 — Jan 2026 high / round resistance

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🐻 Supply Glut Breaks Support

79.50 200-day MA gives way; selling accelerates toward Jun low at 76.80.

🐂 Geopolitical Bid Clears 84

Break above 84.10 swing high opens 87.00 Jan 2026 resistance on momentum.

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USD Strength (EUR/USD 1.1568) — EUR/USD at 1.1568 signals softer dollar — supports commodity purchasing power globally.

China Demand Outlook — Persistent concerns over Chinese industrial activity cap crude demand expectations near-term.

OPEC+ Supply Policy — Group balancing compliance vs. member pressure to raise quotas; next decision is key binary.

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📅 EIA weekly crude inventories report — week of Aug 17

📅 OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee — Aug 2026

📅 US retail sales & industrial output — Aug 15

Neutral — Range Trade — Sell near 84.10 resistance, buy dips to 79.50 — avoid directional bias until a level breaks.

81.61 sits mid-range; gold's +0.5% and soft USD are modestly supportive but supply risk caps the upside.

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