Crude Oil (WTI)

Bullish

Archived analysis from Sep 28, 2026, 8:25 PM

Key insight

Hold $92 — Hormuz standoff unresolved, Trump rejected Iran proposal; Yanbu loadings resumed but pipeline at 50% capacity (3.5 of 7 mn bpd), keeping $95–97 in play this week.

Spike to $96.54 intraday before paring — Hormuz war premium intact; Saudi East-West pipeline partial restart capped upside but supply risk stays elevated.

Main risk

Hormuz Diplomatic Breakthrough

Full Hormuz reopening via US-Iran deal collapses $8–10 war premium instantly; watch Trump-Iran backchannel for any shift.

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