Crude Oil (WTI)

The dominant driver is a live geopolitical risk premium — with US strikes on Iran ongoing and Houthi forces blocking Saudi tanker routes in the Red Sea, supply disruption risk is real and priced in, but a ceasefire deal (reports cite a possible 10-day truce) is the single biggest downside threat to the current rally.

WTI has broken above the $84.68 July swing high to trade at $85.25, driven by an active US-Iran military conflict now in its tenth consecutive day and a Houthi maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia threatening Red Sea energy corridors.

Main Risk

US-Iran Ceasefire / 10-Day Truce Agreement

Mediators are actively pushing both sides toward a ceasefire; any confirmed truce agreement would rapidly unwind the $10–15 geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in WTI, exposing a swift drop back toward $78–$80.

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