USD/CAD

USDCAD is caught in a tug-of-war: surging crude prices (WTI at $87.8, +1.5%) structurally support the Loonie, while the BoC's rate hold at 2.25% and cooling Canadian core CPI (2.0–2.1%) leaves rate-differential pressure on CAD modest — the pair's next directional break will be driven by US Fed guidance and oil's trajectory.

USD/CAD has rebounded from the 1.4000 psychological floor but faces heavy resistance near 1.4150 (50-day MA), with CAD underpinned by elevated oil at $87.8 and a narrowing US-Canada rate differential that limits USD upside.

Main Risk

US-Iran geopolitical escalation driving oil spike

Ongoing US-Iran military strikes are keeping crude prices elevated above $87, which structurally strengthens the CAD and pushes USDCAD lower — a further oil surge toward $92–$95 could break the 1.4000 floor decisively.