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USD/CAD

Bearish

1.39 CAD ▲ +0.02%

Analysis from Aug 14, 2026, 8:32 PM

1.3900 round-number support tested — break opens 1.3780 200-day MA; reclaim of 1.3950 needed to stabilise.

Fades from 1.4150 April high; EUR/USD +0.4% signals broad USD softness pulling pair toward 1.3850 support.

Main Risk

Oil price reversal vs CAD correlation

Oil at $81.6 steady; a spike toward $85 strengthens CAD, driving USDCAD below 1.3850.

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Hard Stop: 1.41 — Break above 1.4050 reclaims April consolidation zone, invalidating bearish thesis

Support 2: 1.38 — 200-day MA

Support 1: 1.39 — Feb 2026 swing low

Resistance 1: 1.40 — 5-day EMA / near-term pivot

Resistance 2: 1.41 — April 2026 range floor

Bull Target 1: 1.41 — April range floor reclaim

Bull Target 2: 1.42 — April 2026 swing high

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🐻 CAD Strength Breaks 1.3850

1.3850 gives way; 200-day MA at 1.3780 next, then 1.3600 Fib support.

🐂 USD Rebounds to 1.4050

Reclaim of 1.3950 pivots bias; 1.4050 and April high at 1.4150 in view.

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Broad USD Weakness — EUR/USD +0.4% to 1.1568 and GBP/USD +0.4% confirm DXY selling pressure weighing on USDCAD.

WTI Crude Oil at $81.6 — Stable oil above $80 underpins CAD; sustained hold lifts CAD, pressuring pair toward 1.3850.

Fed vs BoC Rate Differential — Both central banks near terminal rates; narrowing US-Canada spread limits USD upside above 1.4000.

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📅 Canada CPI release — next scheduled data point

📅 US Retail Sales — Aug 2026 monthly print

📅 FOMC minutes — next release after Aug meeting

📅 BoC rate decision — Sep 2026

📅 US PCE inflation — Aug 29, 2026

Cautiously Bearish — Sell rallies to 1.3950 with stop at 1.4050; target 1.3850 then 1.3780 on extension.

Broad USD softness and stable oil keep CAD bid; 1.3950 resistance caps bounces ahead of next support at 1.3780.

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