USD/CAD

USDCAD has surged roughly 100 pips from last week's 1.4000 lows to 1.4100, but this looks like a corrective bounce into a well-established resistance cluster — the real risk is a fresh leg lower if oil holds elevated and the US-Iran conflict keeps supply fears alive.

USDCAD has rebounded to the 1.4100–1.4180 resistance zone from recent lows near 1.3950, but the pair remains in a week-over-week downtrend (-0.93%) with the BoC holding at 2.25% and rising oil prices (WTI at $83) providing a structural tailwind for the Loonie.

Main Risk

US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Escalation

A sixth consecutive day of US strikes on Iranian infrastructure risks a sustained spike in WTI crude well above $83, directly boosting CAD as Canada's top oil export revenue surges and pressing USDCAD toward the 1.3950 demand floor.