S&P 500

Today's FOMC hold-with-3-dissents is the most hawkish policy signal since September 2016, and with Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon all reporting this week, the next 48 hours will determine whether the S&P 500 breaks above 7,500 or revisits 7,200 support.

The S&P 500 is pinned near the 7,430 area — well off its early-July high of ~7,575 — as a hawkish FOMC dissent (3 votes for a hike) collides with strong Q2 earnings momentum, leaving the index in a tug-of-war between rate-hike risk and a blowout Big Tech earnings week.

Main Risk

FOMC hawkish pivot risk — rate hike at September meeting

Three regional Fed presidents dissented in favor of a 25bp hike today (July 29), and the June dot plot pencils in one hike by year-end 2026, meaning September is live for a surprise tightening that could spike real yields and compress equity multiples from the current forward P/E of ~20.3x.