S&P 500

The semiconductor sell-off triggered by China's Moonshot AI model has broken the tech leadership narrative that drove Q2 gains; with the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.10% — a post-2008 high — any multiple expansion story is under serious pressure heading into peak earnings week.

The S&P 500 has pulled back ~140 points from the early-July high of ~7,575, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index entering a technical bear market and the index now trading below its July 10 swing high at 7,575, signalling near-term distribution.

Main Risk

US-Iran Military Conflict & Strait of Hormuz Disruption

Ongoing U.S. airstrikes on Iran and Iranian threats to block the Strait of Hormuz risk an oil supply shock that would re-accelerate inflation, tighten financial conditions, and force the Fed to delay any rate relief beyond 2026.