S&P 500

The week of July 27–31 is the most consequential of the year: the FOMC meets on July 29, Apple and Amazon report earnings, and Q2 GDP advanced reading drops on July 30 — any one of these events alone is capable of breaking the S&P 500 out of or below its current 7,400–7,575 trading range.

The S&P 500 sits at 7,433 — caught between strong Q2 earnings momentum (87%+ beat rate) and a semiconductor-led drag, with the critical FOMC decision on July 29 and the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.67% creating a wait-and-see standoff at the 7,400–7,450 consolidation zone.

Main Risk

FOMC hawkish hold — July 29 rate decision

Markets expect rates held steady at 350–375 bps, but any hawkish language around the easing bias being dropped could pressure stretched tech multiples and send the S&P 500 below the key 7,350 support.