S&P 500

Key insight

7,695 holds after Monday's geopolitical selloff — PCE Thu and NFP Fri are the binary catalysts; a hot print on either pushes yields above 5.2% and retests 7,600 support.

Recovered 11pts from Monday's 7,683 close, but 10-yr yield near 19-yr high of 5.2% and oil at $89.7 cap upside; index flat for September with key data due Thu–Fri.

Main risk

10-yr Treasury at 19-yr high ~5.2%

Yield spike driven by Iran escalation and sticky PCE bets; break above 5.2% compresses equity multiples and targets 7,600 on SPX.