S&P 500

Key insight

7,800 resistance stalls the rally; break above forces a run at 8,000. Below 7,650 (50-day MA) flips near-term bias bearish. Oil at $93 and USD/JPY at 157 are the swing factors to watch.

7,715 holds above the 50-day MA (~7,650) but fades from the Aug high near 7,800 — US equities lag Europe's gains as oil at $93 pressures margins and rate-cut hopes stay capped.

Main risk

Oil at $93 — energy cost shock

Oil +1.8% to $93.3 squeezes corporate margins and keeps the Fed on hold, capping multiple expansion above 7,800.