S&P 500

Key insight

7,704 Sep low is the line in the sand — close below it confirms breakdown and opens 7,600 50-day MA. October Fed hike risk + 5.18% 10-yr yield cap any near-term upside beyond 7,780 Aug resistance.

10-year Treasury yield at 5.18% — multi-decade high — compresses equity multiples while Fed Governor Barr signals October hike is live. Index faded from 7,764 Friday close to 7,715 today.

Main risk

Fed October Rate Hike — 10-yr Yield at 5.18%

Hot Sep PMI (Mfg 57.0, Svcs 58.7) gives Fed cover to hike in Oct; 5.18% 10-yr yield at GFC-era high crushes rate-sensitive sectors and P/E expansion.