S&P 500

Alphabet, IBM, and Tesla earnings due this week are the single biggest near-term binary for the index; a miss from Alphabet on AI capex ROI could re-test the 7,350 support zone, while a beat could reclaim the 7,575 July high.

The S&P 500 is consolidating near the 7,433 level — roughly 100 points below the recent July high of 7,575 — caught between a strong Q2 earnings season (88% beat rate) and a geopolitical risk premium from escalating US-Iran military strikes pushing oil toward $90.

Main Risk

US-Iran Military Escalation & Oil Spike

Oil has surged to $86.90 in the broker feed (touching $90 intraday earlier this week) amid nine consecutive days of US strikes on Iran — a sustained move above $90 would stoke inflation fears and pressure Fed rate-cut expectations, weighing heavily on equity multiples.