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Bullish
S&P 500
Archived analysis from Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM
7,800 round-number resistance is the line to clear — a daily close above confirms extension toward 8,000; failure to break keeps the index in a coiling consolidation below cycle highs.
7,788 holds above the 200-day MA near 7,200 and the June all-time high zone — trend is intact, momentum positive, with Nasdaq outperforming at +0.3% confirming risk-on breadth.
Main Risk
USD/JPY at 159 — carry-trade fragility
JPY strengthening from 159 could unwind carry trades rapidly, triggering equity deleveraging as in Aug 2024 — watch 155 as the stress threshold.
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