S&P 500

⚠️ Fast-moving development: IG broker feed shows 7,433.42 vs. Monday's confirmed close of 7,600.50 — this likely reflects a pre-session contract gap or off-hours pricing; Tuesday's open is expected higher driven by Palantir's +16% blowout and Caterpillar's raised guidance; the S&P 500 is within 0.27% of scoring a fresh all-time high.

The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its all-time intraday high (~7,620 area) after Monday's 1.48% surge, driven by the Trump-Iran diplomatic pivot, tech mega-cap earnings beats, and a 47.4% blended Q2 EPS growth rate — the bull structure is intact above the 50-day MA near 7,290.

Main Risk

US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Deal Collapse

If Trump's diplomacy fails and military strikes resume, oil prices could spike 10%+ from current $76.7 — reversing Monday's geopolitical tailwind and triggering a sharp re-rating of inflation and rate expectations.