Analysis archive
Crude Oil (WTI)
Recommendation history — all past assessments at a glance. View current analysis →
Sep 22, 2026, 1:24 PM
$90 round number flipped to resistance on today's close; next structural support is $87.40 (50-day MA). Divergence from rising equities flags demand-side pressure as the dominant driver, not supply.
Sep 22, 2026, 3:34 AM
93.06 tests the 2025 swing high cluster near $94–95; a clean break opens $98.50 (Fib 61.8% of the 2022–2023 decline). Failure to hold $90 flips the structure bearish. Supply cuts and a weak dollar are the twin engines of this rally.
Sep 21, 2026, 8:25 PM
$92 is range midpoint: break above $94.80 Aug swing high opens $97–$98 supply zone; lose $89.50 200-day MA and $85 becomes the next structural floor.
Sep 21, 2026, 1:27 PM
$93.02 sits 7% below last week's $100 spike high; Saudi pipeline rerouting via Hormuz absorbs supply shock. Hold $95.00 reclaim as bull/bear line of scrimmage this week.
Sep 21, 2026, 3:34 AM
$93.94 rejection confirms $95 as resistance; next key test is the 50-day MA near $91.50. Bear pressure holds while WTI trades below $95 and OPEC+ supply headlines remain absent.
Sep 18, 2026, 8:30 PM
$95.77 stalls below 50-day MA at $97.50 while gold surges +0.9% and BTC +5.9% — risk-on rotation bypassing crude; next directional move requires a weekly close above $97.50 or below $93.50.
Sep 18, 2026, 1:27 PM
$98 caps near-term upside — break above $100.20 (2026 round-number resistance) opens $104.50 swing high. European equity weakness (-1.2%) and USD/JPY at 157.7 signal risk-off cross-currents that cap rally extension.
Sep 18, 2026, 3:35 AM
$97 holds key Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the Sep spike; geopolitical floor remains intact — Saudi East-West pipeline outage unresolved, Rapidan flags escalation risk if disruption extends past Sep.
Sep 17, 2026, 8:25 PM
$97.16 sits in no-man's land between $95.40 support (50-day MA) and $99.20 resistance (Aug swing high) — break of either resolves the range; gold's 1.9% rally flags macro unease, not supply optimism.
Sep 17, 2026, 1:25 PM
$96.14 rejected at $97 round resistance; gold +2.3% and silver +3.8% surge signals flight-to-safety bid, leaving oil isolated as the weakest commodity. Hold below $97.50 targets $93.50 prior swing low.
Sep 17, 2026, 3:35 AM
$100 round-number resistance is the make-or-break level: a weekly close above it opens $104–$107; rejection keeps oil range-bound at $95–$100 into Q4 supply reviews.
Sep 16, 2026, 8:24 PM
$98 holds as geopolitical risk floor: Hormuz tanker strikes + Saudi pipeline outage keep supply shock alive even as API inventory surplus and US diplomatic messaging cap the upside near $100–$105.
Sep 16, 2026, 1:26 PM
$100 psych level cracks on Wed pullback — bulls must reclaim $101.50 (Tuesday's intraday base) or risk flush to $96.80 200-day MA; Hormuz risk premium intact but fading fast.
Sep 16, 2026, 3:36 AM
$100 round number holds as intraday floor; break below drags to 98.50 (50-day MA). Saudi East-West pipeline closure and Hormuz tanker strikes are bullish supply shocks, but technical correction underway from $105 spike high.
Sep 15, 2026, 8:42 PM
$100 round number now acting as support; Hormuz blockage risk + Saudi pipeline shutdown leave 105–110 corridor as next contested zone. Hawkish Fed is the lone structural headwind.
Sep 15, 2026, 1:24 PM
$100 breakout is the line — clear daily close above flips momentum decisively bullish toward $104 2026 swing high; rejection here risks a pullback to 50-day MA near $93.50.
Sep 15, 2026, 3:38 AM
$100 round-number resistance is the line in the sand — a weekly close above it opens 103.50 (2025 swing high). Failure to break keeps WTI range-bound between 95 and 100 ahead of next OPEC+ monitoring meeting.
Sep 14, 2026, 8:48 PM
98.28 trades below today's $103 intraday high — Saudi pipeline closure and stalled Hormuz talks keep upside bias, but FOMC this week caps risk appetite.
Sep 14, 2026, 2:00 PM
$100 reclaimed for first time in 4 months — Saudi 7mb/d East-West pipeline closed by drone strikes; Strait of Hormuz blockade removes second route. Structural supply shock, not just sentiment.
Sep 14, 2026, 3:36 AM
$100 round number acts as the pivotal gate: close above it on strong volume confirms breakout; rejection sends price back to 50-day MA near $95.80. Risk/reward favours longs while $97.20 holds.
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