Nasdaq 100 — Analysis Archive

At 29,727, the Nasdaq 100 is trading in a narrow corridor between the 30,000 key round-number resistance and the 29,200 50-day MA support — a decisive break in either direction will set the tone for Q3 2026.

The index has surged ~38% over 12 months and ~12.6% in four weeks, but the SMH semiconductor ETF has fallen nearly 9% in a week — a dangerous divergence signalling rotation risk within the Nasdaq 100 itself ahead of mega-cap earnings this week.

The Nasdaq 100 has broken to a new all-time high at 29,727 while its largest sector (semiconductors) is in a multi-week downtrend driven by Chinese AI competition (Moonshot AI) and TSMC capex shock — this breadth divergence is the critical risk to sustained upside.

The Nasdaq 100's record rally (+38% over 12 months) is being stress-tested by a semiconductor rout — the SMH ETF fell ~9% last week alone — driven by TSMC's capex shock, Moonshot AI's competitive model, and growing scrutiny of Nvidia's cost economics; a technical correction toward the 28,000 level is the path of least resistance.