Nasdaq 100

Key insight

30,500 round-number support held into Friday close; break above July 2026 swing high at 31,200 opens a run toward 32,000. Gold at $4,284 signals risk-off hedging persists — NDX needs a catalyst above 31,200 to confirm trend extension.

30,518 holds above the 200-day MA near 29,800 and Q2 2026 breakout level at 30,000 — tech leadership intact with NDX outpacing S&P 500 and Dow on a relative basis.

Main risk

10-Year Treasury Yield Spike

Yield surge above 5.0% compresses tech multiples directly; NDX fell 15%+ in weeks when 10Y crossed that threshold in late 2023.