Nasdaq 100

Key insight

Flat open masks a split: semi/AI names at highs while breadth crumbles — 52-week lows outnumber highs inside the S&P, echoing Dec 1999 divergence. Hold only above 30,000 or cut risk.

30,460 stalls at record zone — AI/semi rally narrows dangerously as Fed hikes to 3.75–4% and dot plot flags another move by year-end.

Main risk

Second Fed Hike — Oct 28 FOMC

Dot plot signals another +25 bps; core PCE at 3.4% and oil at $92 keep Warsh hawkish. Re-rating risk for high-multiple tech is acute.