Nasdaq 100

Key insight

30,000 is the line that matters: a close above unlocks 30,800 Fib extension; rejection here risks a pullback to 50-day MA near 28,500. Flat price action on a Friday suggests no conviction ahead of the weekend.

29,438 holds near all-time highs but momentum is flat — 24h change -0.03% signals consolidation after a major run; 30,000 round-number resistance is the next key test.

Main risk

USD/JPY at 156.9 — yen carry unwind

USD/JPY rising to 156.9 pressures carry trades that fund tech longs; a sharp reversal toward 150 could trigger forced selling in Nasdaq.