Nasdaq 100

Key insight

29,051 sits below the 50-day MA at 29,200 with oil at $97.8 — energy shock threatens margin compression for mega-cap tech. Hold below 29,200 and the 28,500 Aug swing low becomes the next key test.

29,051 breaks below the 50-day MA near 29,200 — tech leads the sell-off with a -1.3% drop vs S&P 500's -0.5%, as oil surges 4% to $97.8, raising cost-of-capital fears.

Main risk

Oil spike to $97.8 — cost-push shock

Oil +4% to $97.8 tightens real yields and squeezes tech margins; a break above $100 could accelerate rotation out of NDX.