Nasdaq 100

Key insight

29,500 is the line in the sand: dips held here confirm the bull trend; a close below flips bias to 28,800 50-day MA retest. Tech mega-caps dominate index weight, so any AI capex guidance cut triggers outsized drawdown.

29,514 holds above the 200-day MA near 27,800 and the 2025 breakout base at 28,000 — trend structure intact despite flat Friday tape.

Main risk

AI Capex Slowdown Signal

Any top-5 holding cutting forward AI spend guidance sends the index toward 28,000 support fast — weight concentration makes this the single biggest tail risk.