Nasdaq 100

Key insight

29,599 stalls just below the 30,000 round-number ceiling — a clean daily close above flips the bias to fresh ATH extension; rejection here risks a pullback to the 28,500 prior breakout shelf.

29,599 holds above the 200-day MA near 27,800 and the 2025 breakout base at 28,500 — trend structure intact, but momentum fading into month-end with -0.1% drift.

Main risk

Fed policy path / real-rate shock

Sticky inflation above 3% forces the Fed to hold longer; 10-yr Treasury yield above 4.80% compresses mega-cap tech multiples fast.