Nasdaq 100

Key insight

29,640 stalling beneath 30,000 psychological resistance — a weekly close above 29,800 opens the door to 30,500; failure to hold 29,000 flips the short-term structure bearish.

29,640 holds near cycle highs with S&P 500 at 7,735 confirming broad risk-on tone; NDX flatlined on the day signals consolidation, not distribution, above the 29,000 round number.

Main risk

Fed policy pivot delay

Sticky services inflation could keep the Fed on hold into Q4 2026, pressuring NDX multiples if 10-yr yields re-accelerate above 4.5%.