Nasdaq 100

Key insight

29,604 sits between 50-day MA ~29,200 and the 30,000 psychological resistance; reclaiming 30,000 on a closing basis is the minimum required to re-engage bulls — failure here opens the 28,800 Fib 38.2% retracement.

29,604 breaks below the 30,000 round-number pivot — -1.3% underperformance vs S&P 500's -0.5% signals tech-specific selling as rate-sensitive growth stocks lead losses.

Main risk

USD/JPY at 159.6 — carry unwind risk

159.6 is near intervention territory; a JPY spike would force rapid unwind of yen-funded tech longs, amplifying NDX downside.