GBP/USD — Analysis Archive

Cable has stalled at the critical 1.3440–1.3450 supply zone — a clean break above 1.3480 opens the door to multi-year highs, but a deteriorating Middle East backdrop and potential safe-haven USD demand is the primary near-term headwind.

Cable has recovered sharply from the 1.3150 seven-month lows on dollar weakness, but the rising wedge rejection near 1.3480 and ongoing Middle East escalation risk cap the immediate upside — the next UK CPI and PMI prints this week are the deciding catalyst.

The twin catalysts of a weakening US labour market and Fed Chair Warsh's opaque new communication style are eroding dollar confidence faster than BoE rate risks can cap Sterling — Cable's path of least resistance is higher toward 1.3600.

Cable is stuck in a tug-of-war: deteriorating US macro data (NFP 57k, soft CPI) is the structural bull case, but escalating Middle East geopolitical risk and a less predictable Fed under Warsh are capping upside near 1.3480 and could trigger a sharp unwind if geopolitics worsens.