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GBP/USD

Bullish

Archived analysis from Jul 20, 2026, 5:22 AM

The twin catalysts of a weakening US labour market and Fed Chair Warsh's opaque new communication style are eroding dollar confidence faster than BoE rate risks can cap Sterling — Cable's path of least resistance is higher toward 1.3600.

GBP/USD has broken back above the key 1.3450 resistance-turned-support after soft US CPI and a deeply disappointing June NFP (+57K vs 114K forecast) drove broad-based dollar selling, with Cable now consolidating near 1.3500.

Main Risk

Middle East Escalation / Oil-Driven Inflation Shock

A further flare-up in US-Iran hostilities could spike Oil (currently $83.6, +2.2%) toward $100, reigniting US inflation fears and triggering a sharp safe-haven USD bid that would pressure GBP/USD back below 1.3400.

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