EUR/USD
NeutralArchived analysis from Sep 30, 2026, 8:32 PM
Key insight
1.1325 rejection warns of near-term consolidation; hold above 1.1300 keeps bulls in control, but a daily close below flips short-term bias to a retest of 1.1220 200-day MA.
Fades 0.2% to 1.1325, holding above 1.13 round number but stalling near multi-month highs; USD/JPY steady at 157.5 signals no fresh dollar collapse to extend the EUR rally.
Main risk
Fed hawkish hold vs. ECB cut divergence
Diverging central bank paths narrow EUR rate advantage; any Fed hawkish signal above neutral drives USD bid and threatens 1.1300 support.
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