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EUR/USD

Bullish

1.16 USD ▼ -0.04%

Analysis from Aug 14, 2026, 8:27 PM

1.1600 reclaimed — next resistance at 2025 swing high 1.1700; USD bears in control as gold surges.

Holds above 1.1550 200-day MA equivalent; USD weakness confirmed by gold at $4,372 and GBP/USD at 1.3535.

Main Risk

USD safe-haven reversal

Gold retreat from $4,372 could signal USD recovery, pressuring 1.1500 support.

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Price Ladder

Hard Stop: 1.14 — Break of 1.1380 negates bull trend; reclaims 2024 range ceiling as resistance.

Support 2: 1.14 — Fib 38.2% from Oct 2024 low

Support 1: 1.15 — Round number / near-term floor

Resistance 1: 1.17 — 2025 swing high

Resistance 2: 1.18 — Key round number / 2023 peak zone

Bull Target 1: 1.17 — 2025 swing high

Bull Target 2: 1.19 — Fib 61.8% extension target

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Scenarios

🐻 USD Rebound Breaks Support

Failure at 1.1500 opens 1.1200; requires ECB dovish shift or sharp USD recovery.

🐂 EUR Extends to 1.18

1.1600 held — USD weakness and gold strength support extension to 1.1700–1.1850.

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Macro Drivers

Fed Rate Expectations — Soft US data backdrop keeps Fed easing bias alive, sustaining USD selling pressure.

ECB Policy Stance — ECB holds rates steady; no fresh dovish signals keeps EUR supported above 1.1500.

Gold & Risk Sentiment — Gold at $4,372 (+0.5%) signals USD distrust; typically correlates with EUR/USD gains.

USD/JPY at 159.40 — JPY strengthening caps USD broadly; EURUSD benefits from cross-currency USD weakness.

US Equity Stability — S&P 500 flat at 7,780 — no risk-off shock to trigger flight-to-dollar demand.

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Key Dates & TradingBrief View

📅 US Retail Sales – next week (approx Aug 18–19)

📅 Fed FOMC minutes release – approx Aug 20

📅 ECB August meeting accounts – approx Aug 21

📅 US PCE inflation print – approx Aug 29

📅 Jackson Hole symposium – late August 2026

Cautiously Bullish — Hold long above 1.1500; add on pullback to 1.1520, target 1.1700, stop 1.1380.

USD weakness broad-based: gold at $4,372, GBP at 1.3535. 1.1600 reclaimed; 1.1700 swing high is next.

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