EUR/USD
NeutralArchived analysis from Sep 30, 2026, 4:16 AM
Key insight
1.1300 acting as near-term floor; a daily close below flips bias bearish toward 1.1200. Fed staying higher-for-longer vs ECB easing bets caps upside at 1.1380–1.1450 resistance band.
Holds 1.1300 round-number support but stalls below 1.1380 — diverging Fed/ECB rate paths keep the pair rangebound with neither side holding a clear catalyst.
Main risk
Fed higher-for-longer pivot risk
Renewed USD strength on hawkish Fed signals breaks 1.1300 and targets 1.1200 — invalidating the current neutral hold.
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