EUR/USD
BearishArchived analysis from Sep 29, 2026, 8:47 PM
Key insight
1.1300 is the immediate line — a daily close below flips near-term momentum bearish and opens 1.1220 (50-day MA). Gold at 4,172 and flat US equities point to cautious dollar demand, not a EUR revival.
Pulls back 0.30% to 1.1300 after stalling at 1.1380 resistance; gold's +1.4% surge signals risk-off USD demand, while USD/JPY holds 157.4 — dollar not breaking down.
Main risk
US Data Surprise / Fed Hawkish Repricing
Strong US jobs or PCE print above 2.5% could drive EUR/USD through 1.1220 toward 1.1050, invalidating any bull case.
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