EUR/USD
NeutralArchived analysis from Sep 29, 2026, 2:04 PM
Key insight
1.1300 round number holding as near-term floor; break below 1.1250 (50-day MA) flips bias bearish, while reclaim of 1.1400 re-opens 1.1500 2025 swing high. Gold surge to 4,156 adds conflicting safe-haven signals.
Pulled back to 1.1300 after failing to sustain gains above the 1.1400 round number; USD holds firm with USD/JPY at 157.3 and gold's +1.0% surge signals risk-off USD demand competing with EUR bulls.
Main risk
Fed vs ECB rate-path divergence
Widens if US data stays strong; pushes EURUSD below 1.1250 support (50-day MA) and challenges the 1.1200 structural floor.
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