EUR/USD

Bearish

Archived analysis from Sep 28, 2026, 8:29 PM

Key insight

1.1370 trapped in 1.1359–1.1411 range; break below 1.1359 opens 1.1280 50-day MA. NFP Oct 3 is the binary catalyst — beat sends EUR/USD toward 1.1200.

Stalled at 1.1411 intraday resistance; DXY double-bottom breakout confirmed, USD yield premium widens, ECB rate at 2.65% vs Fed at 4.00%.

Main risk

US NFP — Oct 3

Beat above 200K reprices Fed path, drives DXY higher; EUR/USD could gap below 1.1359 support on open.

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