Dow Jones

Key insight

51,500 round number holds as intraday resistance — softer PCE lifts futures but Dow is -3.5% in September, lagging S&P; needs close above 51,800 to reverse monthly trend.

PCE at 3.4% vs 3.7% est. eases rate-hike fear, but 10-yr yield at 5.3% (2007 high) and consumer confidence at 81.9 (12.5-mth low) cap upside near 51,500.

Main risk

10-yr Treasury yield at 2007 high

Yield holding near 5.3% compresses equity multiples; any upside CPI/NFP surprise could push 10-yr to 5.5% and pressure Dow to 50,000.