Dow Jones

Key insight

51,350 Sept low is the line in the sand — a close below flips the near-term trend; PCE Wed + NFP Fri will determine whether the 5% yield regime is here to stay.

Holds just above 51,350 Sept low as 10-yr yield tops 5% (multi-decade high), Boeing drags -7%, and Iran strait closure keeps oil at $92.9 — three compounding headwinds.

Main risk

10-yr Treasury yield above 5%

Yield at multi-decade high since July 2007 — reprices equity risk premium and directly compresses Dow's rate-sensitive industrials and financials.