CAC 40

Oil's sharp single-session collapse to $83.6 from last week's $95-100+ levels is the most important development today — it decisively eases Middle East energy-shock fears, reduces re-inflation risk, and tilts ECB September policy expectations back toward a potential cut, all of which are structurally bullish for CAC 40 earnings multiples.

The CAC 40 is trading at 8,430.90, holding above the key 8,400 round-number support and poised to challenge the July swing high at 8,561 after a -5.7% oil crash today removes the primary inflation/ECB-hike headwind that drove the July 23 sell-off.

Main Risk

ECB September Rate Hike Repricing

President Lagarde explicitly stated on July 23 that the hold at 2.25% was a 'tactical pause, not an end to rate increases' — any resurgence in energy prices or Eurozone CPI above 3% could force a September hike, crushing equity valuations.