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CAC 40

Neutral

8,637.50 EUR ▼ -0.07%

Analysis from Aug 14, 2026, 8:22 PM

8,650 resistance unchallenged; break above opens 8,800 but strong euro limits upside for luxury and auto exporters

Holds 8,637 — flat on the week, capped by EUR/USD strength at 1.1568 weighing on export earnings

Main Risk

EUR/USD at 1.1568 — multi-year high

Euro at 1.1568 compresses margins for LVMH, Stellantis, Airbus — CAC's top export earners

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Price Ladder

Hard Stop: 8,350.00 — Break of 200-day MA ~8,350 invalidates bullish structure, opens bear leg

Support 2: 8,350.00 — 200-day MA

Support 1: 8,500.00 — Round number / Aug consolidation floor

Resistance 1: 8,650.00 — Near-term swing high / Aug ceiling

Resistance 2: 8,800.00 — Fib 61.8% of 2025 correction

Bull Target 1: 8,800.00 — Fib 61.8% / prior range high

Bull Target 2: 9,000.00 — 2024 all-time high zone

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Scenarios

🐻 Strong Euro Breaks Export Names

8,500 lost triggers slide to 200-day MA at 8,350; sustained euro strength risks 8,200.

🐂 Breakout Above 8,650 Resistance

8,650 cleared opens 8,800 Fib target; momentum could carry to the 9,000 all-time high zone.

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Macro Drivers

EUR/USD strength at 1.1568 — Surging euro at 1.1568 erodes USD-revenue translation for LVMH, Airbus, Stellantis

ECB monetary policy stance — ECB holds rates steady; no imminent cut signals keep discount rates elevated for growth names

Gold at $4,372 — risk-off signal — Gold's 0.5% gain today flags defensive flows that historically pressure cyclical EU equities

US equity stability — S&P 500 at 7,780 — Flat US session limits contagion risk; DAX +0.0% shows pan-European resilience at highs

Oil at $81.6 — energy sector neutral — Brent steady at $81.6 provides stable input costs; no outsized drag on French industrials

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Key Dates & TradingBrief View

📅 ECB policy meeting minutes — late Aug 2026

📅 French Q2 GDP revision — late Aug 2026

📅 US CPI August print — mid-Sep 2026

📅 Eurozone PMI flash estimate — Aug 2026

📅 Jackson Hole Fed/ECB speeches — Aug 2026

Neutral — Range Watch — Hold flat; buy only on confirmed close above 8,650 with stop at 8,350

CAC is rangebound at 8,637; euro strength caps the upside — wait for 8,650 break or 8,500 failure before committing.

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