CAC 40

Key insight

8,175 is a pivot: break above 8,300 (200-day MA) opens 8,550; failure below 8,050 (Sep swing low) risks retest of 7,900 zone. Fed guidance today is the binary gate.

8,175 holds above 52-week low of 7,505 but sits 6.6% below 8,755 ATH; ECB Sep +25bps with sticky inflation caps upside while Fed decision today anchors risk appetite.

Main risk

ECB Hawkish Stance / Sticky Inflation

ECB Sep +25bps with inflation above 2% target for extended period; re-rate risk weighs on high-multiple CAC names like LVMH and Hermès.