CAC 40

Key insight

8,259 (2024 all-time high) is the line in the sand — two failed closes above it keep the index in a 300-point consolidation range; a clean weekly close above unlocks 8,500+, a break below 8,050 opens a retest of the 200-day MA at 7,980.

Holds 8,173 — flat on the day, trading between 200-day MA near 7,980 and 2024 record high at 8,259, with no directional catalyst to break either bound.

Main risk

Brent Crude at $97 — cost-push inflation

Oil at $97.3 squeezes French industrials and consumers; ECB cut cycle at risk if energy re-accelerates CPI above 2.5%.