CAC 40

Today's triple-threat — an ECB signalling a likely September rate hike, a tech earnings shock from STMicroelectronics, and WTI oil spiking 4.9% on a 12th consecutive night of US strikes against Iran — has turned a consolidation range into a breakdown, with the CAC erasing three weeks of gains in a single session.

The CAC 40 is breaking below the key 8,300 round-number support zone as a hawkish ECB hold, a 13% collapse in STMicroelectronics on weak Q3 guidance, Nestlé's near-7% plunge, and surging oil prices past $90 combine to overwhelm bulls on the highest-volume sell-off in weeks.

Main Risk

ECB September Rate Hike Pricing & Oil Inflation Feedback Loop

Markets are now pricing a ~90% probability of an ECB rate hike in September as oil near $90 WTI reignites inflation fears, threatening to compress eurozone equity multiples and pressure rate-sensitive CAC 40 sectors including real estate, utilities, and luxury.