CAC 40

Key insight

8,154 holds above the 8,100 July pivot but momentum is negative — ECB rate decision Thursday is the binary event that decides whether 8,000 or 8,400 prints next.

8,270 print Tuesday marks lowest close since July; ECB set to raise 25 bps as eurozone CPI hit 3.3% — banks and luxury names leading the selling.

Main risk

ECB +25 bps hike & hawkish guidance

Eurozone CPI at 3.3% YoY — highest in 3 years — forces ECB hand; a hawkish hold breaks 8,100 support and targets 7,980.