CAC 40

Key insight

8,200 is the line: break below triggers July swing-low test at 8,050. ECB rate decision Thu Sep 11 is the binary gate — a hawkish surprise accelerates the slide; no hike keeps 8,306 resistance in play.

8,262 marks lowest close since July — ECB +25 bps expected Thu Sep 11, eurozone CPI at 3.3% highest in 3 yrs, Strait of Hormuz tensions lift oil to $92.6.

Main risk

ECB rate decision – Thu Sep 11

25 bps hike priced; hawkish guidance beyond Sep would crush rate-sensitive banks and luxury stocks, breaking 8,200 support.