CAC 40

Key insight

8,250 is the last line before a test of July swing low at 8,100; ECB meeting Thursday — a hawkish +25 bps signal could break that floor fast. SocGen -2.4% today flags sector-wide stress.

8,270 — lowest since July — breached as ECB hike risk mounts with eurozone CPI at 3.3%, Strait of Hormuz disruptions lift oil to $92, hammering rate-sensitive French banks.

Main risk

ECB hawkish surprise Sep 11

Eurozone CPI 3.3% — well above 2% target — forces ECB hand; +25 bps + hawkish guidance would crush CAC financials and drag index to 8,100.