CAC 40

Key insight

8,282 close-Thursday acts as near-term pivot; break above 8,370 Sept 1 high needed to resume trend, while France's budget deficit >5% GDP and ECB hawkishness constrain a sustained re-rating.

8,274 sits 317pts below the Feb 2026 record high of 8,591 — range-bound with ECB rate-hold risk, weak French PMI, and Hormuz tensions capping upside.

Main risk

ECB prolonged rate hold

Hormuz tensions lift energy prices, reinforcing ECB caution — high-for-longer rates compress CAC multiples, especially rate-sensitive real estate and autos.