CAC 40

The index is trapped between earnings-driven optimism (Airbus +7% after investor day) and Middle East risk headwinds that are keeping luxury heavyweights — which represent roughly 25% of CAC 40 weighting — under sustained selling pressure ahead of a pivotal ECB hold decision.

The CAC 40 is consolidating just below its 52-week high of 8,642 after a sharp Airbus-led Wednesday rally, with Thursday's ECB decision and heavy earnings from BNP Paribas, Thales, and TotalEnergies acting as the immediate directional gatekeepers.

Main Risk

ECB Summer Pause + Brent Crude Above $94

If the ECB signals a prolonged hawkish hold while Brent crude remains above $94 — its highest in over a month due to the ongoing US-Iran strikes — European consumer and industrial margins face dual compression, threatening a retreat back to the 8,300 support zone.