AUD/USD

The 0.7000 breakout is the key event: if AUD/USD closes the New York session above this level, it opens the door to the 52-week high at 0.7279, but three hawkish Fed dissenters and fresh US strikes on Iran inject significant near-term downside risk.

AUD/USD has reclaimed the psychologically critical 0.7000 round number — a level not sustainably held since mid-2024 — aided by the Fed holding rates in a 9-3 vote and a broad USD sell-off that was the greenback's worst single day in four weeks.

Main Risk

Fed hawkish dissent + Middle East escalation (US strikes on Iran)

Three FOMC members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) voted for a 25bp hike and US military strikes on Iran are driving fresh safe-haven USD demand, threatening to reverse the post-Fed AUD/USD rally and push the pair back below 0.7000.