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AUD/USD

Bullish

0.71 USD ▼ -0.03%

Analysis from Aug 14, 2026, 8:31 PM

Break above 0.7130 (2025 swing high) opens 0.7200; failure there keeps 0.6950 200-day MA in play as downside magnet.

Holds 0.7100 with EUR/USD +0.4% and gold at $4,372 — broad USD weakness underpins AUD rally.

Main Risk

China demand slowdown

Weakening Chinese PMI cuts iron ore demand — AUD/USD loses key commodity-income support near 0.6950.

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Price Ladder

Hard Stop: 0.69 — Break below 0.6920 voids bull structure — under 200-day MA and 2025 base support.

Support 2: 0.70 — 200-day MA

Support 1: 0.71 — Round number / intraday pivot

Resistance 1: 0.71 — 2025 swing high

Resistance 2: 0.72 — Key round number resistance

Bull Target 1: 0.72 — Round number / multi-year level

Bull Target 2: 0.74 — 2024 range high

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Scenarios

🐻 USD Rebound Crushes Recovery

USD strength + China slowdown push AUD back to 0.6750 Fibonacci zone.

🐂 AUD Extends to 0.7350

USD retreat and commodity tailwind propel AUD to 2024 range high at 0.7350.

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Macro Drivers

USD broad weakness (DXY trend) — EUR/USD +0.4% and GBP/USD +0.4% today confirm broad USD selling — AUD benefits directly.

Gold at record $4,372 — Gold +0.5% to $4,372 signals risk-on / USD-off tone, historically correlated with AUD upside.

China economic outlook — Slowing Chinese growth threatens iron ore demand — Australia's largest export earner and AUD anchor.

RBA monetary policy stance — RBA holds rates above Fed equivalent; carry appeal intact but easing cycle risks narrowing spread.

Oil steady at $81.6 — Flat oil limits global growth optimism; no additional commodity tailwind for AUD beyond gold/silver.

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Key Dates & TradingBrief View

📅 RBA meeting minutes — next scheduled release

📅 China industrial output & retail sales — mid-Aug 2026

📅 US CPI print — next monthly release

📅 Fed FOMC minutes — late Aug 2026

📅 Australian employment data — late Aug 2026

Cautiously Bullish — Hold long above 0.7050; add on confirmed break above 0.7130, target 0.7200 then 0.7350.

Broad USD weakness and gold at $4,372 support AUD. 0.7130 breakout is the key trigger; China risk caps conviction.

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