AUD/USD

Today is a binary event day: Australian Q2 CPI (trimmed mean stuck at 3.6%) will set RBA rate hike expectations, and the FOMC decision will determine USD direction — the outcome of these two catalysts will dictate whether AUD/USD breaks above 0.7038 or collapses toward 0.6900.

AUD/USD is pinned at the psychologically critical 0.7000 round number, trading below the 55-day SMA (0.7038) and 100-day SMA (0.7057) but holding above the 200-day SMA (0.6901), creating a technically indecisive setup into a dual catalyst day of Australian CPI and the FOMC rate decision.

Main Risk

FOMC Rate Decision – Hawkish Hold or Guidance Shift

If the Fed signals a higher-for-longer stance or pushes back against imminent cuts, USD strength will reassert and push AUD/USD back below the 0.6960 horizontal support toward the 200-day SMA at 0.6901.