AUD/USD

Today's dual event risk — Australia's Q2 CPI print and the FOMC rate decision — means AUD/USD could move sharply in either direction; the pair needs to reclaim 0.7038 (55-day SMA) to resume its bull trend, otherwise a slide toward the 200-day SMA at 0.6901 becomes the path of least resistance.

AUD/USD is caught between hawkish RBA commentary from Governor Bullock and a risk-off USD bid ahead of today's FOMC decision, keeping price pinned near the 0.6960–0.6965 horizontal support with resistance at the 55-day SMA (0.7038).

Main Risk

FOMC July 2026 Rate Decision — hawkish hold

If the Fed signals it intends to keep rates higher for longer amid oil-driven inflation concerns (WTI +6.1% today to $83.4), the USD could surge and push AUD/USD decisively below the 0.6960 horizontal support.